Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
